Australia Ai Group Construction Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Surprise:

AUD-14.3

Actual:

-19.3

Forecast: -5

Previous/Revision:

-3.7

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Ai Group Construction Index measures the performance of the construction sector in Australia, assessing levels of construction activity, orders, and employment across the building, apartment, commercial, and engineering sectors. As a diffusion index, it provides insights into confidence and growth within the industry, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signaling contraction, serving as a national indicator.

Frequency

The Ai Group Construction Index is released monthly, typically during the first week of the subsequent month, and is presented as a final figure without preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders analyze this index due to its implications for the Australian economy and its potential influence on financial markets, impacting the Australian dollar, equities, and sectorial investments. A higher-than-expected index reading is bullish for the currency, indicating industry growth, while a lower reading suggests contraction and may weigh on the AUD and related equities.

What Is It Derived From?

This index is derived from surveys distributed to construction industry executives and managers, collecting data on new orders, activity levels, supplier deliveries, and employment. The index calculation uses diffusion methodology, where the proportion of respondents reporting improvement is compared against those reporting deterioration, creating a weighted composite score.

Description

The Australia Ai Group Construction Index serves as a critical measure of the construction sector's health, offering timely insights into economic growth drivers and industry trends. The absence of a preliminary version emphasizes the reliability of monthly data, catering to those seeking a snapshot of the latest sector conditions, and ensures that final figures provide an accurate, albeit brief, reflection. This index does not typically include month-over-month (MoM) or quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) measures, as the focus remains on year-round sector comparison and trend identification, facilitated by a diffusion index format.

Additional Notes

The Construction Index serves as a coincident economic measure, aligning promptly with ongoing trends and sector activities. It offers insights into broader economic conditions, providing a valuable context for assessing other national reports like GDP growth and employment figures in the context of global construction industry trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for the Australian dollar (AUD), Bullish for Australian construction stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for the Australian dollar (AUD), Bearish for Australian construction stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 01, 2025	-19.3	-5	-3.7	-14.3
Mar 04, 2025	-3.7	-23	-20	19.3
Feb 04, 2025	-20	-25	-19	5
Dec 03, 2024	-19	-32	-40.9	13
Nov 05, 2024	-40.9	-14	-19.8	-26.9
Oct 01, 2024	-19.8	-23	-38.1	3.2
Sep 03, 2024	-38.1	-22	-23.2	-16.1
Aug 06, 2024	-23.2	-15	-23.2	-8.2
Jul 02, 2024	-23.2	-40	-68.1	16.8
Jun 04, 2024	-68.1	-28	-25.6	-40.1
Apr 30, 2024	-25.6	-14	-12.9	-11.6
Apr 02, 2024	-12.9	-10	-18.4	-2.9
Mar 05, 2024	-18.4	-7	-11.5	-11.4
Feb 06, 2024	-11.5	-24	-22.2	12.5
Dec 05, 2023	-22.2	15	18.5	-37.2
Oct 31, 2023	18.5	5.1	7.1	13.4
Oct 03, 2023	7.1	-12	-9.9	19.1
Sep 06, 2023	-9.9	-10	-9.2	0.1
Aug 01, 2023	-9.2	12	10.6	-21.2
Jul 04, 2023	10.6	-8	-6.6	18.6
Jun 06, 2023	-6.6	-16	-12.4	9.4
May 02, 2023	-12.4	-6.6	-5.8	-5.8
Apr 04, 2023	-5.8	-8	-5	2.2